Humanoid robots will arrive in Australia on somebody else’s schedule. Chinese factories shipped about ninety percent of the world’s units last year, and the cost curve they are riding looks like the one that took solar panels and batteries from expensive to disposable in a decade. The question for Australia is not whether, it is which sectors first, what has to be true before each one, and who decides.
This series answers that one sector at a time. Each report uses the same engine: list everything that has to be true before a robot can do a job, score where each of those things stands, work out how fast it is moving, and run it forward with the uncertainty left in. The result is a band of years, not a date, and a list of the things standing in the way, in order. Every number is shown with its reasoning, and every report names in advance what would change it.
The method is the same for every sector and is explained once, on the method page. If you think a number is wrong, the working behind each report shows you which one to argue with.